Whale Bets $15K on Aggressive Fed Rate Cut Amid Economic Uncertainty

A crypto whale known as JustWakingUp has placed a $15,000 bet on Polymarket predicting a 50 basis point Fed rate cut next week—a move that would yield a $226,000 payout if correct. This contrasts sharply with Wall Street's consensus expectation of a modest 25 basis point reduction.

Market sentiment, as reflected in the CME FedWatch Tool, shows a 91% probability of the smaller cut. However, recent economic data revisions—including the largest downward jobs report adjustment in history—have intensified debates about the Fed's next move.

The wager represents a classic asymmetric trade: minimal risk for the whale, who has over $2M in recorded profits, but outsized reward potential. Analysts remain divided on whether this reflects genuine market insight or simply high-stakes speculation.